Current Perspectives

 

Why It Pays to Keep an Eye on the Credit Cycle

Market sell-offs can be unsettling. But it’s important to keep them in perspective. The recent downturn in some credit markets is normal, given where we are in the credit cycle. It’s not evidence of a bursting bubble.

China Walks an FX Tightrope

The liberalization of China’s currency and capital account is under threat as the renminbi (RMB) falls, capital outflows intensify and foreign reserves dwindle. Will the country forge ahead with its reforms or pause to allow the market to settle down? Both, in our view, have their pros and cons.

New Year, More Volatility—What Can Investors Do?

The calendar has changed to 2016, but the volatility story remains. The key concern: weaker global growth and its possible ripple effects, including low oil prices for an extended period. How should investors approach this challenge?

Economic Perspectives

 

Global Economic Outlook February 2016

Global :: The global economic outlook remains uneven. Our growth estimates for 2016 stand at 2.7%, up marginally from the estimated gain of 2.6% in 2015. The risks to the outlook are nearly balanced, and worries about China’s economy are the biggest wild card.

Assessing Recession Risk

US :: The severe drop in equity prices has raised concerns of recession risks in the US. While financial market corrections typically follow economic downturns, they do sometimes precede them. A review of today’s key economic variables suggests to us that the economic growth cycle remains on track. However, continued financial market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point.

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