Current Perspectives


Assessing the Risk of a US Economic Recession

The severe equity sell-off has raised concerns of recession in the US economy. Continued market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point, but key indicators today suggest the growth cycle is still on track.

High Yield: Could the 2008 Crisis Repeat Itself?

Does the recent stress in high yield mean we’re headed for another financial crisis? We don’t think so. The probability of anything happening in markets is never zero. But in this case, it’s pretty close.

Six Questions on Emerging-Equity Turmoil

It’s been a terrible start to the year for emerging-market equities. But by maintaining perspective on long-term trends, investors can gain the comfort to stick with developing stocks, in our view.

How Well Do You Know High Yield?

Do these statistics surprise you? While it may initially seem counterintuitive, the high-yield market’s quick rebound rate after downturns actually makes sense. Its consistent, high income makes it among the most resilient asset classes.

Why “Best of Breed” Often Fails

Many investors seek “best of breed managers across each category of stocks. The logic seems compelling: Diversify your risk across categories, while choosing the best performing funds using a framework such as Morningstar’s Style Box. Unfortunately, this approach tends to deliver poor outcomes.

Economic Perspectives


Global Economic Outlook May 2016

Global :: We have not changed our 2016 global economic growth estimate of 2.6%. This includes an outlook of 1.9% growth for developed economies and 3.6% for developing economies.

Brexit Vote Raises Economic and Political Stakes for EU

Europe :: If the UK votes to leave the EU on June 23, investors will scramble to figure out what it really means. The near-term impact on the British economy is likely to be negative—although the magnitude is uncertain—and Brexit would surely come as a massive shock to global financial markets. Beyond that, though, it may be in the European political arena that the impact is most lasting and damaging.

In the News