Current Perspectives

 

Assessing the Risk of a US Economic Recession

The severe equity sell-off has raised concerns of recession in the US economy. Continued market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point, but key indicators today suggest the growth cycle is still on track.

High Yield: Could the 2008 Crisis Repeat Itself?

Does the recent stress in high yield mean we’re headed for another financial crisis? We don’t think so. The probability of anything happening in markets is never zero. But in this case, it’s pretty close.

Six Questions on Emerging-Equity Turmoil

It’s been a terrible start to the year for emerging-market equities. But by maintaining perspective on long-term trends, investors can gain the comfort to stick with developing stocks, in our view.

How Well Do You Know High Yield?

Do these statistics surprise you? While it may initially seem counterintuitive, the high-yield market’s quick rebound rate after downturns actually makes sense. Its consistent, high income makes it among the most resilient asset classes.

Why “Best of Breed” Often Fails

Many investors seek “best of breed managers across each category of stocks. The logic seems compelling: Diversify your risk across categories, while choosing the best performing funds using a framework such as Morningstar’s Style Box. Unfortunately, this approach tends to deliver poor outcomes.

Economic Perspectives

 

Global Economic Outlook January 2017

Global :: The global economy and financial markets faced a number of potential shocks last year, including a possible Chinese hard landing, the UK’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s unexpected election as the next US president. But both came through largely unscathed. There’s unlikely to be much letup this year, though, with a very heavy political calendar in Europe that includes the French presidential election and considerable uncertainty over what a Trump presidency will actually entail.

Could the European Central Bank Bring its Asset Purchases to an Early End?

Europe :: The ECB has promised to pick up the pace of its monthly asset purchases should downside risks to inflation resurface. In light of recent data, though, perhaps the question we should be asking is whether or not the ECB could pare back its purchases even further? Almost certainly not in the near term, but it is something for investors to have on their radar when we enter the second half of the year.

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