Current Perspectives


Assessing the Risk of a US Economic Recession

The severe equity sell-off has raised concerns of recession in the US economy. Continued market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point, but key indicators today suggest the growth cycle is still on track.

High Yield: Could the 2008 Crisis Repeat Itself?

Does the recent stress in high yield mean we’re headed for another financial crisis? We don’t think so. The probability of anything happening in markets is never zero. But in this case, it’s pretty close.

Six Questions on Emerging-Equity Turmoil

It’s been a terrible start to the year for emerging-market equities. But by maintaining perspective on long-term trends, investors can gain the comfort to stick with developing stocks, in our view.

How Well Do You Know High Yield?

Do these statistics surprise you? While it may initially seem counterintuitive, the high-yield market’s quick rebound rate after downturns actually makes sense. Its consistent, high income makes it among the most resilient asset classes.

Why “Best of Breed” Often Fails

Many investors seek “best of breed managers across each category of stocks. The logic seems compelling: Diversify your risk across categories, while choosing the best performing funds using a framework such as Morningstar’s Style Box. Unfortunately, this approach tends to deliver poor outcomes.

Economic Perspectives


Global Economic Outlook October 2016

Global :: Once again, we’ve made few material changes to our global growth, inflation and policy forecasts. We’re not alone: after a material adjustment in growth expectations following the Brexit shock, most forecasters have stuck with their outlook. We still expect modest global growth in 2017 of 2.7%, a tad above the 2.5% growth we expect this year.

US Growth Dynamics and Globalization

US :: While the US economy remains stuck in a slow growth path, policymakers and analysts are hard pressed to explain the sluggish performance. Up to now, they have focused mainly on debt dynamics and how large debt positions could potentially hamper growth prospects. Still, the growth problem may be much more complex, and powerful global forces may be equally, or even more, important.

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