Current Perspectives


Assessing the Risk of a US Economic Recession

The severe equity sell-off has raised concerns of recession in the US economy. Continued market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point, but key indicators today suggest the growth cycle is still on track.

High Yield: Could the 2008 Crisis Repeat Itself?

Does the recent stress in high yield mean we’re headed for another financial crisis? We don’t think so. The probability of anything happening in markets is never zero. But in this case, it’s pretty close.

Six Questions on Emerging-Equity Turmoil

It’s been a terrible start to the year for emerging-market equities. But by maintaining perspective on long-term trends, investors can gain the comfort to stick with developing stocks, in our view.

How Well Do You Know High Yield?

Do these statistics surprise you? While it may initially seem counterintuitive, the high-yield market’s quick rebound rate after downturns actually makes sense. Its consistent, high income makes it among the most resilient asset classes.

Why “Best of Breed” Often Fails

Many investors seek “best of breed managers across each category of stocks. The logic seems compelling: Diversify your risk across categories, while choosing the best performing funds using a framework such as Morningstar’s Style Box. Unfortunately, this approach tends to deliver poor outcomes.

Economic Perspectives


Global Economic Outlook June 2016

Global :: The past month or so has been all about event risk. Would the Group of Seven (G7) meeting at the end of May pave the way for coordinated global fiscal stimulus? Will the Federal Reserve pull the trigger on the second rate hike in this tightening cycle at its June policy meeting? Will the UK voters tell the European Union (EU) that they want out when they go the polls on June 23?

Irrational Exuberance 20 Years Later

US :: In 1996, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan raised an important question concerning asset prices: was the stability of these prices essential to the performance of the economy and the conduct of monetary policy? Nearly 20 years later, no one has yet answered that question or even determined how to define stability

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