Current Perspectives

 

Assessing the Risk of a US Economic Recession

The severe equity sell-off has raised concerns of recession in the US economy. Continued market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point, but key indicators today suggest the growth cycle is still on track.

High Yield: Could the 2008 Crisis Repeat Itself?

Does the recent stress in high yield mean we’re headed for another financial crisis? We don’t think so. The probability of anything happening in markets is never zero. But in this case, it’s pretty close.

Six Questions on Emerging-Equity Turmoil

It’s been a terrible start to the year for emerging-market equities. But by maintaining perspective on long-term trends, investors can gain the comfort to stick with developing stocks, in our view.

How Well Do You Know High Yield?

Do these statistics surprise you? While it may initially seem counterintuitive, the high-yield market’s quick rebound rate after downturns actually makes sense. Its consistent, high income makes it among the most resilient asset classes.

Why “Best of Breed” Often Fails

Many investors seek “best of breed managers across each category of stocks. The logic seems compelling: Diversify your risk across categories, while choosing the best performing funds using a framework such as Morningstar’s Style Box. Unfortunately, this approach tends to deliver poor outcomes.

Economic Perspectives

 

Global Economic Outlook April 2016

Global :: We have not changed our 2016 global economic growth estimate of 2.6%. This includes an outlook of 1.9% growth for developed economies and 3.6% for developing economies.

Housing Slump and Policy Constraints Pose Risk to Malaysia’s Growth

Asia :: After rising strongly for years, Malaysia’s highly leveraged property market is facing strong headwinds amid prospects of a supply overhang and growing pressure on household finances. Risks to financial-system stability and growth may be increasing, calling for a soft-landing plan by the government and the central bank.

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